Artificial intelligence already has a favorite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. According to predictions by the French firm AVISIA—which specializes in data and AI—Lamine Yamal leads the field with a 23% chance of winning the trophy, ahead of Harry Kane (21%) and Kylian Mbappé (19%).
Rodri and Lionel Messi round out the top five, with probabilities of 19% and 18%, respectively. To generate this ranking, the model analyzes factors including individual and team performance, the players’ media profile, and historical trends within the voting system.
AVISIA utilizes a prediction model based on a classification algorithm known as “Random Forest,” which compares various scenarios using data from its proprietary “Player Index.” The firm claims to have correctly identified all five players in the top five for the 2025 edition—won by Ousmane Dembélé—and also reports a 75% success rate in its predictions for the 2026 World Cup. In a year defined by the World Cup, the AI positions the FC Barcelona prodigy as the frontrunner, though it stops short of guaranteeing him the ultimate prize.
